Journal of 슬롯 커뮤니티 Economics & Trade

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  • UK spec may vary. Based on In the process of implementing carbon neutrality around the world,eco-friendly energy such as renewable energy is expanding. Becauserenewable energy, however, is highly variable and has a distributed formof energy, new challenges are created in balancing electricity demandand supply at the local level. Korea’s demand response projects havebeen mainly implemented in industrial and commercial sectors with highelectricity consumption, but since 2018, small-scale demand responseprojects have been implemented for residential use as well. This studytargets demand response projects in the industrial, commercial, andresidential power sectors and estimates cost-benefit ratio (BC ratio), netpresent value (NPV), and internal rate of return (IRR). and break-evenpoint (payback period). However, since the demand response project is aproject in which the government intervenes and receives national subsidies,it should be analyzed separately from the government perspective andthe user perspective. Additionally, in order to reflect the uncertainty ofcost and benefit variable, this study intends to perform a stochasticeconomic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The resultshows that in the case of the residential demand response project, theeconomic feasibility was very low from the government perspective dueto the large amount of government subsidies, but from the user perspective,the economic feasibility was very high. In the case of commercial andindustrial demand response projects, it was found that there was a needto expand their distribution as it is a desirable policy that can achieve awin-win for all stakeholders by securing economic feasibility from boththe government and user perspectives.


  • This study investigates the impact of public research and development (R&D)investment in energy technology on carbon intensity across 30 OECD countriesfrom 1995 to 2020. The results of the empirical exercise, employing the IEA EnergyTechnology RD&D Budgets database, show that per capita CO2 significantlydecreases in the share of energy R&D investment relative to GDP. However, ittakes two- to three years to see the effects of these investments. Our findingsemphasize the role of carbon pricing mechanisms, such as emissions tradingsystems and carbon taxation. Robustness tests on the dynamic panel modelconfirm the impact of energy R&D on emissions reduction.


  • This study examines the participation of the Chungcheong region inthe global value chain (GVC), which has a large intermediate trade scaleand an economic scale similar to that of Greece and Portugal. Tomeasure the GVC participation of the Chungcheong region, the regionalinput-output tables of the Bank of 슬롯 커뮤니티 and the multi-regionalinput-output table (MRIO) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) wereintegrated and connected in 2010, 2013, and 2015. First, the Chungcheongregion was integrated from Daejeon, Sejong, Chungnam, and Chungbukregions into a regional input-output table composed of two regions:Chungcheong and other regions outside of Chungcheong. The ADB'sMRIO was integrated into an international input-output table consistingof 슬롯 커뮤니티 and other countries, and the 슬롯 커뮤니티n portion of the internationalinput-output table was integrated using the regional input-output tablecomposed of two regions previously prepared. The GVC participation ofthe Chungcheong region measured using the MRIO was found to bemuch higher than that of regions outside of Chungcheong and evenhigher than that of Greece and Portugal with similar economic scales.

    When examining the forward and backward participation of the GVC,the Chungcheong region showed a steady rate of around 45% for eachduring the target period. Furthermore, when divided into simple andcomplex participation, the forward simple participation rate of theChungcheong region was higher than its complex participation rate,which was similar to that of regions outside of Chungcheong. However,the backward complex participation rate of the Chungcheong region washigher than its simple participation rate, which was different from otherregions outside of Chungcheong. When examining by industry, the GVCparticipation of the manufacturing industry in the Chungcheong regionwas higher than that of the service industry, especially in the chemical,
    electrical and electronic equipment and precision instruments, and transportequipment industries. However, the transport equipment industry showeda different pattern from other industries, with a higher forward complexparticipation rate than its forward simple participation rate.


  • The export structure of South 슬롯 커뮤니티’s Chungnam Province exhibitsconsiderable vulnerability to external shocks, primarily due to its heavydependence on specific industries, notably the semiconductor and displaysectors dominated by large corporations, as well as its concentratedexport markets in China and Vietnam. Amid intensifying global economicuncertainties and heightened export volatility, export diversification hasemerged as a critical policy imperative for ensuring regional economicresilience and sustainable growth. This study employs both the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and Theil Index to quantify export concentration patterns,while utilizing fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to examinethe determinants of export market diversification across 39 manufacturingindustries among regional SMEs. The analytical framework incorporates sixconditional variables: foreign investment, productivity, export competitiveness,firm distribution, product diversity, and large firm dependency.

    Throughfuzzy-set calibration and truth table analysis, multiple causal configurationsleading to export market diversification are identified. The findingsdemonstrate that export market diversification among SMEs manifeststhrough four distinct patterns: global competitiveness, intra-industrydiversification, large firm linkages, and hidden champions. This researchadvances the understanding of export diversification by systematicallyanalyzing the complex configurations of conditional variables, therebyproviding an empirical foundation for developing industry-specific policyinterventions to enhance regional export resilience.

  • In this study, we examined the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s new technologies on the economic performance of enterprises using a propensity score-matching approach, grounded in a potential outcome framework, to mitigate endogeneity issues in estimating the effects using regression. Propensity score estimation performance was bolstered by employing a machine-learning algorithm, the random forest. Data from the Survey of Business Activities in Korea, collected through comprehensive enumeration, were used to enhance the results’ generalizability. Findings revealed that enterprises adopting new technologies experienced an approximately 40% surge in annual sales compared to those that abstained. Effect magnitude varied based on enterprise size. For small-and mediumsized enterprises, the increase was approximately 43%; for large enterprises, 77%. Thus, large enterprises appear to have an advantage over smaller ones in utilizing new technologies. This study is significant for its application of the latest research methodology in estimating economic effects of Fourth Industrial Revolution techn ologies on enterprises and identifying policy implications.

  • Forecasting Iron Ore Price by Machine Learning Models

    Lee, Seojin ; Kim, Seong Tae 2024.04.30

    Using a range of macro슬롯 커뮤니티 and financial variables as predictors,we examined the out-of-sample predictability of iron ore prices throughmachine learning (ML) models. Our result shows that traditional factormodels or/and ML models such as random forests and extra-trees, outperformthe linear regression. For longer forecasting horizons, the Elastic Net modeldemonstrates superior accuracy. This suggests that choosing informativepredictors is crucial for improving the forecastability of iron ore prices.

  • This study analyzed carbon emissions in the carbon-intensive manufacturing sector of the Chungcheong region and their relationship with productivity. Industry-specific carbon emission coefficients were derived using regional input-output tables, and factors influencing emission changes within and outside the region were examined using the extended Syrquin method. The System GMM estimation method was employed to explore the impact of carbon emissions on labor productivity. The analysis revealed that direct emissions had the largest share, with some industries affected by regions outside Chungcheong. Changes in emission coefficients were a significant factor, and regions outside Chungcheong had a notable influence. Labor productivity in the Chungcheong region’s manufacturing sector remained unaffected by carbon emissions, while regions outside Chungcheong saw improvements with decreasing carbon emissions.

  • The aim of this study is to analyze effects of portfolio changes in public R&D investments on the Korean economy. To that end, we developed a computable general equilibrium model that enables industry-specific simulations. This study is distinguished from others in that it focused on public R&D investments of two major sectors in Korea: steel and semiconductor industries. The simulation results show that an increase of public R&D investment in the steel industry has an positive effect on the whole economy. On the other hand, an increase of public R&D investment in the semiconductor industry has an positive effect to some extent, but give a negative effect on the national economy. This implies that there is an optimal point of public R&D investment in each industry.

  • The aging population is expected to have an impact on the overall economy, employment, and other factors, but it is anticipated that the extent of this impact will vary by industry. Therefore, using panel data from 29 OECD countries, a regression analysis was conducted to examine the changes in industrial structure resulting from population aging. The regression analysis results indicate that the changes in the proportion of the elderly population and the proportion of the working-age population have different effects across industries. By utilizing the estimated regression coefficients and population projections from Statistics Korea, the study forecasted changes in South Korea's industrial structure caused by demographic changes. The analysis indicates that future demographic changes in Korea will likely lead to a decline in the manufacturing sector's share of total value added, accompanied by a corresponding increase in the service sector's share. Within the manufacturing sector, the proportions of the wood and paper industry and the machinery and equipment industry are projected to decline significantly. Within the service sector, the proportions of public administration and real estate industries are expected to increase substantially.

  • This paper explores the pass-through of major commodity prices to inflation in Korea. By using the threshold regression, we find the asymmetric response of headline inflation to the world commodity prices: energy commodities pass through the most during high inflation, while the food and beverage and industrial input play a more important role during low inflation. On the other hand, significant pass-through of the energy prices disappear with respect to the core inflation regardless of the inflation regime, meaning that 2nd round effects of energy commodity prices do not exist in Korea inflation. In contrast, food and beverage as well as industrial input significantly drive core inflation changes during low inflation. Overall our results imply that not only energy prices but also other commodity prices should be considered to stable inflation and monetary policy.

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KTV생방송 대한민국, 뉴노멀 시대 서비스산업 정책 과제는?

주체 : 산업연구원

슬롯 커뮤니티 Research faculty

  • 학력
    • Osaka Prefecture University (Ph.D)
    경력
    • 2021.06 - 현 재 제22대 산업연구원 원장
    • 2017.10 - 2019.05 대통령비서실 중소기업비서관/중소벤처비서관 비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업비서실 중소기업
    • 2015.04 - 2017.10 한국중소기업학회 부회장
    • 2015.03 - 2017.02 한국산업조직학회 감사
    • 2009.03 - 2017.10 한국동북아경제학회 이사
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월간 슬롯 커뮤니티 산업경제 코로나19 발생 이후 제조업 고용 변화: 중간 점검

코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.

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